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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 61493 times)

jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #200 on: September 11, 2017, 06:20:47 AM »

After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.

Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths.  We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts.  3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers.  Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error  Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state.  That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.

The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather".  And they are right about that.  But they can predict the weather.  And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.

« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 08:09:30 AM by jeffandnicole »
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Desert Man

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #201 on: September 11, 2017, 08:26:26 AM »

Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #202 on: September 11, 2017, 08:43:21 AM »

Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.

??

Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.

Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane?  Or are you just throwing ideas out there?
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #203 on: September 11, 2017, 10:00:46 AM »

Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.

??

Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.

Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane?  Or are you just throwing ideas out there?

Based on predictions by a few Youtube channels of amateurs, but you're giving me a more professional idea of where Jose is headed. The NWS and NOAA aren't 100% accurate...then again, they're reliable people when it comes to hurricane tracking.

Found this image on another message board I frequent in:
http://www.unexplained-mysteries.com/forum/uploads/monthly_2017_09/59b686ca787d2_6z911.png.e9f5e44ec1e90c228dc48405f2170e7f.png

Katia came and went in northern/northeast Mexico and it sends some rain to South TX and by the weekend, the Southwest US. We had 3 days of monsoonal storms in so CA already.
« Last Edit: September 11, 2017, 10:04:49 AM by Desert Man »
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #204 on: September 11, 2017, 10:18:33 AM »

After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.

Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths.  We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts.  3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers.  Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error  Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state.  That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.

The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather".  And they are right about that.  But they can predict the weather.  And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.

It didn't matter where the hurricane was going to go as a center track. No matter what the entire peninsula of Florida was going to feel its effects. The extra balloons sent up across the central US helped to modify the track of Irma as the trough didn't dig as deep as many models were predicting which resulted in Irma going up the west coast instead of Miami and a GA/SC landfall. Many professionals in the industry were already skeptical in the Wed-Thursday timeframe about the track and noted it on many forecast discussions about a possible shift westward.

I think overall this hurricane was handled pretty good, outside of the last minute east-to-west coast shift. It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley. In fact, Cuba helped to keep the hurricane as a minimal cat 4 instead of the possible cat 5 everyone was expecting. They planned for a cat 5, and many towns are saying they're glad they did because now they can handle the cat 3 and 4 damage seen on TV screens.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #205 on: September 11, 2017, 12:08:26 PM »

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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #206 on: September 11, 2017, 12:24:50 PM »

It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley.

Because of the size of the storm, it would have had to veer way off track for the entire state not to feel the effects.  And that's one of the reasons why the tracking of the hurricane won't get the attention it deserves.  Throwing out a little example here: If it was a smaller hurricane that was going to hit Miami and they advised everyone to head west, only for the track to change and it go up the west coast where everyone evacuated to, then everyone would've been thrown into the storm rather than steered away from it.

Another, maybe better example: The hurricane was supposed to stay east and head up towards South Carolina.  Many of the evacuees headed Northwest towards Atlanta.  Where is the hurricane tracking...towards Atlanta!  Sure, it'll only be a Cat 1 or a Tropical Strom by the time it gets up there, but it shows that the days of pre-planning and constant forecasting only continued to put people in harms way, not out of the way.

Weather watchers keep an eye on Jose on a northward track to the NYC metro area (it's possible) and what if it was categories 3-5? This is worse than superstorm Sandy in 2012.

??

Jose is widely expected to stall out, drift at sea for a day or two, do a loop, and then stagger towards Florida or Georgia as a Cat 1.

Which report is saying it'll slam into New York as a major hurricane?  Or are you just throwing ideas out there?

Based on predictions by a few Youtube channels of amateurs, but you're giving me a more professional idea of where Jose is headed. The NWS and NOAA aren't 100% accurate...then again, they're reliable people when it comes to hurricane tracking.

OK...good to know.  Youtubers are probably the worst at this stuff - they know everything...and afterwards, will still know everything, even though they were completely wrong!

Then again, the NWS, NOAA, and most news stations aren't too much better! lol
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #207 on: September 11, 2017, 12:40:09 PM »

Here's one report (that I just happened to see linked from another site) regarding Jose.  Basically, it's going to sit out at sea south of Bermuda for much of the week, before eventually start to head towards the US.  It could hit nearly anywhere along the east coast from Florida to Nova Scotia, or go out to see, but it is incredibly too far away to know what path it'll take, and there are numerous other fronts and weather systems that'll impact it's ultimate path.  Since the waters are a bit cooler compared to the Caribbean and south, strengthening of this storm to major status probably won't happen.  That said, that's not necessary for a lot of destruction to occur.  Sandy wasn't even a hurricane when it hit the NJ/NY region; but it was an incredibly large storm, which allowed it to become the mess that it was.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/could-hurricane-jose-be-a-threat-to-the-us-later-in-september/70002694
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #208 on: September 11, 2017, 01:00:12 PM »

It still hit Florida, still did massive damage to the keys and southern Florida as expected, and was expansive for the rest of the peninsula to feel the effects in one way or another. The state got prepared and already there are people stationing supplies ready to move in once the storm settles down across the Tennessee Valley.

Because of the size of the storm, it would have had to veer way off track for the entire state not to feel the effects.  And that's one of the reasons why the tracking of the hurricane won't get the attention it deserves.  Throwing out a little example here: If it was a smaller hurricane that was going to hit Miami and they advised everyone to head west, only for the track to change and it go up the west coast where everyone evacuated to, then everyone would've been thrown into the storm rather than steered away from it.

Another, maybe better example: The hurricane was supposed to stay east and head up towards South Carolina.  Many of the evacuees headed Northwest towards Atlanta.  Where is the hurricane tracking...towards Atlanta!  Sure, it'll only be a Cat 1 or a Tropical Strom by the time it gets up there, but it shows that the days of pre-planning and constant forecasting only continued to put people in harms way, not out of the way.


That's why there's an update every 3 hours from the NHC on what's happening with this storm. This is why we have the cone of uncertainty, which covered all the outliers that could have happened. This included the west or eastward track if it occurred. Overall, people knew that this storm was going to affect Florida and the Southeast as early as last Wednesday. One of my last projects as a meteorology student was to do a rough synopsis on how models handle hurricanes and the result was this: Computers can only do so much. They're getting more accurate with each passing season but a TON of variables come into play that computer models have a hard time figuring out (landmass heights on how it could weaken a storm and cities were some of the big issues plaguing coders today).

But hell it was handled well enough and a lot better than previous storms of recent memory (Sandy and Matthew are the top 2 in my mind). It's getting there, but far from perfect.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #209 on: September 11, 2017, 01:26:37 PM »

After Irma moves on, I hope there's some discussion about how wrong the forecasters were in figuring out it's path.

Yeah, I don't want to hear that these storms have uncertain paths.  We spend billions of dollars a year on nailing down forecasts.  3 or so days ago, about 3 dozen models all had the storm going up the east side of Florida, with the exception of 1 or 2 outliers.  Even the 'cone' wasn't extending that far out...which is supposedly the margin of error  Suddenly, 24 hours later, everything shifted to the west side of the state.  That is a lot of forecasts that were completely wrong.

The hardest thing about these forecasts - many people are forgiving of weather forecasters, because "you can't control the weather".  And they are right about that.  But they can predict the weather.  And those predictions aren't getting any better, even though they computer equipment they have to forecast the weather is costing us a lot of money.

I just reviewed the graphics archive, and the actual path it's followed so far was at no point outside of the cone.  Its projected path is outside of some of the earlier days 4 and 5 cones.  I heard a meteorologist talking about how some people think they shouldn't give a center line, because it too easily draws all of the attention.  I thought that years ago, and noticed when in 2007 they started making available the maps showing the cone and forecast points with no track line.  Now the maps come with a warning that the position forecast is for the center of the storm, and that hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone away from the future center position.  That's another important point that's often ignored, like the cone itself, while people focus on the line.  These are improvements, but people still pay too much attention to the line, which is still available.

The real problem is the shape of Florida.  You can't evacuate away from one coast without moving toward another one, and you can't go south without potentially trapping yourself, so there's only one true evacuation direction.  In most places you can go away from the coast or either direction along it without running out of land, so you don't need a pinpoint forecast.  Florida is in a difficult location, because they stick out in the way of hurricanes and it's hard to get away from them.

It's only a matter of opinion, but I really think the forecast went well.  I'm sure a scientific analysis will be done on how wrong it was and why it wasn't better.  I think the problem was the location.  An equal amount of forecast uncertainty wouldn't be as much of a problem just about anywhere else.
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adventurernumber1

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #210 on: September 11, 2017, 04:14:32 PM »

I've been watching The Weather Channel, and due to Hurricane Irma, in Clearwater, Florida, power has been blasted, and all of the traffic signals are out, among other things. As a result, motorists are having to treat intersections as an all-way stop.

Also due to Hurricane Irma, the Atlanta Airport has been receiving wind gusts close to 60 MPH, and the Atlanta area in general is getting hit pretty hard right now.

Also, much of the coastal southeast is having really bad flash-flooding problems, including Savannah, GA and Charleston, SC.

And unsurprisingly, tornado watches have been popping up everywhere due to Hurricane Irma.

Needless to say, Hurricane Irma is a mess. With me residing in northwest Georgia, lots of rain and wind is here and much more will be coming our way. Hope everyone else is doing okay.
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SP Cook

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #211 on: September 11, 2017, 04:16:27 PM »

The advances in weather forcasting in my lifetime have been amazing.   The idea that "we pay a lot of money so it should be better" is just wrong.  It is what it is, something less than perfect is most often the best that can be done at any price. 

The road related issue with this, IMHO, is this shows that having only one way out of SW Florida is not safe, and a diagonal is needed.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #214 on: September 12, 2017, 04:48:22 PM »

Pretty good article "Why didn't Hurricane Irma kill more Americans? Thank the meteorologists"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #215 on: September 13, 2017, 05:58:53 AM »


Haha! When I heard about that I immediately remembered the scene in 'Key Largo' (a superb movie, by the way) where Humphrey Bogart asks Edward G Robinson, who plays a tough-guy mobster who is very suddenly scared shitless by an approaching hurricane, "why don't you pull out your gun and shoot it?" Obviously, the producers of that picture could count on audiences being smart enough to know how stupid that idea would be. My, how America has changed!
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #216 on: September 13, 2017, 06:27:01 AM »

Pretty good article "Why didn't Hurricane Irma kill more Americans? Thank the meteorologists"
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html

I guess people didn't watch 24 hour news & weather channels in 1900 and 1957. 

I also guess that the article is hoping people wouldn't remember such a fact that TV barely existed back then.

Maybe they're also hoping that after the reader reads "...about 250 deaths per decade from 1970 to 1999.
The number of people killed in hurricanes halves about every 25 years...", they'll forgotten this fact when they get to "In Hurricane Katrina, which ravaged New Orleans in 2005 and remains America’s deadliest storm in decades, one mortality study found that many of the 1,170 or more victims died in flooding near where the storm breached man-made levees.". 

That storm alone killed over 4 decades worth of people, based on their previously mentioned figures.

Odd and misinformed article.

Have we gotten better at knowing these storms are out there and where they're going?  Yes.  Have we gotten better is truly predicting these storms?  Not really.  Have we gotten better at telling everyone about the storm?  Yes, but not because of meteorologists...it's because of all the various forms of communication out here.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #217 on: September 13, 2017, 12:39:19 PM »


Odd and misinformed article.


I would say that the parts of your post I'm not quoting are mostly accurate, but this seems to be a non sequitor. The article was lucid and informative. It didn't say that only meteorologists should get the credit for better forecasting. To me it seemed like the writer was thanking the science of meteorology, which credits a lot more people. It also acknowledged the actions of the state of Florida and the federal government, both of which handled this one quite well.

At the time of Hurricane Audrey in 1957, anyone who didn't have TV did have radio, and radio provided more news and weather coverage than TV in those days. Audrey was pretty important in furthering our knowledge of tropical cyclones. We were able to track it with high accuracy thanks to the Hurricane Hunters and radar images, plus the unfortunate oil companies and their doomed workers whose rigs were destroyed one by one as Audrey advanced through the Gulf. Satellites imagery hadn't yet become available, and the computer modeling was done on systems that could be easily outperformed by the phone in your pocket. And yet we were able to issue forecasts that turned out to be mostly accurate. Meteorology does indeed deserve lots of credit.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 12:45:49 PM by berberry »
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #218 on: September 14, 2017, 04:25:42 PM »

Satellite view of the remnants of Irma after it had moved past Florida.

https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/hires/2017/1-nasaseesremn.jpg
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #219 on: September 14, 2017, 09:59:31 PM »

http://www.fox4now.com/news/state/unprecedented-river-flooding-could-close-i-75-in-north-florida

The Santa Fe River has been rapidly rising within the past two days.

Hurricane Irma has spiked the threat and risk that Interstate 75 between Interstate 10 and Alachua will be closed due to possible flooding from the Santa Fe River.

Should this happen, it is very likely that in the area, other roads such as US 27, US 41, FL SR 47, and a typo "US 121" - they either meant to say FL 121 or US 129, would face a similar problem, and that there would be closures and reroutings.

Should Interstate 75 be flooded at the river, FDOT will reroute traffic to US 19, US 301, and Interstate 95. It has been professionally advised that any Floridians planning on traveling to Central or Southern Florida should consider traveling southbound on I-95.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #221 on: September 15, 2017, 12:39:02 PM »

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/09/14/hurricane-jose-ambles-toward-u-s-coast-but-likely-head-north-offshore/665135001/

Update hurricane Jose is at play.

Indeed, and tropical depression 14 also lurks. Forecasters seem certain it will soon be a tropical storm. Right now it's encountering shear, but that won't last more than a few days. Conditions on the Atlantic crossing are generally favorable to development, and it is on a very westerly track. I suppose what happens next might depend on whether a new Bermuda high develops.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #222 on: September 15, 2017, 05:19:37 PM »

Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #223 on: September 17, 2017, 01:07:39 AM »

Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.

Jose's track now a little farther east.  Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands.  Only concerns are rip currents and rain.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #224 on: September 17, 2017, 09:42:22 AM »

Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.

Jose's track now a little farther east.  Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands.  Only concerns are rip currents and rain.

Maria, on the other hand…
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