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Author Topic: Tropical cyclone tracking thread  (Read 61518 times)

roadman

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #225 on: September 18, 2017, 11:05:47 AM »

Jose is planned to hit where I am on the 20th. Maximum rainfall in my town will be September 19, with 0.81 inches of rain 11 AM - 2 PM, and maximum wind gusts will be exactly one day later at 34 mph (although it will be in the low 30s for over a day). The eye will pass 20 miles east of Cape Cod.

Fourteen is expected to hit Wilmington, North Carolina on September 26.

Jose's track now a little farther east.  Western edge of the cone of uncertainty barely clips Cape Cod and the islands.  Only concerns are rip currents and rain.
As of the 11 am (Monday) National Hurricane Center Hose update, Cape Cod and Islands, and most of coastal Massachusetts currently under tropical storm warning for winds and rain (although the local NOAA office in Taunton is still showing only a tropical storm watch for most of costal Massachusetts)EDIT - Taunton NOAA office just updated to tropical storm warning as well.  So we're not quite out of the woods yet.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 11:54:38 AM by roadman »
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #226 on: September 18, 2017, 01:11:37 PM »

Jose is looking more and more like an extra-tropical system than a hurricane. Most of the convection is to the north of the main circulation
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #227 on: September 18, 2017, 09:26:04 PM »

Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #228 on: September 18, 2017, 09:49:03 PM »

Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #229 on: September 19, 2017, 05:35:46 AM »

Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:
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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #230 on: September 19, 2017, 08:36:07 AM »

Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.

Maybe you should become a forecaster, see how good you do. Never heard of "bombing" when it comes to low pressure and hurricanes?
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #231 on: September 19, 2017, 09:05:48 AM »

Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:

That's their JOB!

We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.

With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on.  Many lives depend on their accuracy.

So yes, I expect them to be perfect.   

Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street.  We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.

Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.
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Brandon

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #232 on: September 19, 2017, 09:11:07 AM »

Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:

That's their JOB!

We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.

With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on.  Many lives depend on their accuracy.

So yes, I expect them to be perfect.   

Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street.  We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.

Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.

Dude, knock it off on weather forecasting.  There's still a lot we don't know the exacts of.  We still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense.  We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.  We also still don't quite fully understand why some storms dump more water than others.  Those things are still difficult to understand with hurricanes.  We've learned a hell of a lot since we really got going in the satellite era, but we're not even close to fully grasping how they work fully.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #233 on: September 19, 2017, 09:21:15 AM »

I don't see why they are still issuing advisories on Jose when it is clearly extratropical already.
Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.

You have missed Otis in the Eastern Pacific :sombrero:.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #234 on: September 19, 2017, 09:32:39 AM »

Oh snap, when did Maria become a Cat 5?

Today.

Also, to note: This is another storm the forecasters bungled.  It was originally supposed to be no stronger than a Cat 2.  Whatever these forecasters are looking at, they are continuing to use bad data.
you sure are expecting forecasters to be perfect.  :eyebrow:

That's their JOB!

We've seen the internet posts in regards to "You had one job" where many people, usually someone working in a minimum wage job, messed up a sign in a store or something that was funny but otherwise minor in nature.

With weather forecasting, we're dealing with college educated professionals that majored in the subject their working on.  Many lives depend on their accuracy.

So yes, I expect them to be perfect.   

Wanna know what's funny and ironic...there are pages upon pages of complaints within this forum of street signs that aren't perfect, and posters wonder how such work is even allowed to be posted on the street.  We DEMAND those signs be changed. Perfection is not only expected, it's demanded.

Yet, when a professional weather forecaster makes an error of judgement of windspeed of a hurricane when it doubles from a minor hurricane to a catastrophic hurricane that can kill hundreds and destroy billions of dollars in property, eh, that's ok.

Be my guest then. Forecast this hurricane for the next week. Updates every 3 hours, pressure in millibars, wind speed, water temperature ahead and under the storm, current position and direction/speed of travel, and a spaghetti plot of all possible tracks/intensities for this storm from the model ensembles. Also issue tropical advisories for any landmass in the way and start informing whether the US should be concerned with this storm based on the track. Then based on all this information, give out a forecast discussion as to why you think a certain ensemble run is better than the other and your opinion on what this storm could do.

I'll give you a link to all the tools you need. Everything from upper air readings to future models from the surface to 10km up on multiple computer models, even new imagery from the GOES-16 satellite to see how this hurricane bombed and turned into a cat 5 so quickly: http://weather.cod.edu/

Only rule: don't use the NHC website, as I want you to be the hurricane forecaster. Have fun and try to be 100% perfect. If you start now, I'll take an update at 11:30am CST  :)
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #235 on: September 19, 2017, 10:21:47 AM »

Who said I'm forecasting the weather, or want to forecast the weather?  I said I want those whose job it is to forecast it to forecast it.

Quote
We still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense.  We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.

If a storm is known to become more intense, then that should be forecasted.  That's really the whole point of a forecast.  Also, not all storms suddenly get more intense.  This year has been unusual with several Cat 5 storms, but we've had 13 named storms so far.  Many weren't even hurricanes, showing that not all storms get instance.


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ET21

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #236 on: September 19, 2017, 11:06:08 AM »

Who said I'm forecasting the weather, or want to forecast the weather?  I said I want those whose job it is to forecast it to forecast it.

Quote
We still don't thoroughly understand how a storm will suddenly become more intense.  We know that it will, but we still don't have a clue as to how intense it will get.

If a storm is known to become more intense, then that should be forecasted.  That's really the whole point of a forecast.  Also, not all storms suddenly get more intense.  This year has been unusual with several Cat 5 storms, but we've had 13 named storms so far.  Many weren't even hurricanes, showing that not all storms get instance.

And there's the science. That's what we're trying to figure out still. Why did Maria go berserk in 24 hours but Lee faded away? Why does one supercell produce a tornado yet another one doesn't? Why did Jose do a pinwheel instead of following right behind Irma? There are still plenty of questions to be answered as this atmosphere can change within seconds with so many variables and factors being pulled into account.

Maybe that's what you can do, since you clearly think forecasters aren't doing their job right. Help solve these questions and plug those answers into the computer models to better forecast the weather.
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SP Cook

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #237 on: September 19, 2017, 11:52:31 AM »

Expecting a weather forecast of any type to be "perfect" and believing that it is someone's "job" to be perfect is silly.   While weather forecasting, mostly due to satellites, has improved greatly, and will probably continue to do so, it is not yet, and probably will never be, "perfect".

The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard.  Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the anlalogy fails totally.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #238 on: September 19, 2017, 12:08:32 PM »

If weather forecasting is to be perfect, you need the models to hit a home run every single run with minute by minute updates on anything related to weather (temp, humidity, wind speed, etc). If models are 100% correct all the time, you wouldn't need forecasters. That amount of computation and application honestly isn't there yet and probably won't be for awhile.
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roadman

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #239 on: September 19, 2017, 12:36:21 PM »

The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard.  Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the analogy fails totally.

^^^^^^ this
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #240 on: September 19, 2017, 01:11:25 PM »

Maria sweeps through the Antilles, headed to Puerto Rico and on a similar Northwest path like Irma...this is of special concern for the Bahamas and a serious matter for Florida. The problem is we're not going to get a specific path on any hurricane tracking model. Maria is thought to be a threat to the Carolinas and Georgia as well the east coast of Florida, esp. north of Miami, a more populated urban/metro area than where Irma's eye made landfall.
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jeffandnicole

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #241 on: September 19, 2017, 01:30:19 PM »

Maria sweeps through the Antilles, headed to Puerto Rico and on a similar Northwest path like Irma...this is of special concern for the Bahamas and a serious matter for Florida. The problem is we're not going to get a specific path on any hurricane tracking model. Maria is thought to be a threat to the Carolinas and Georgia as well the east coast of Florida, esp. north of Miami, a more populated urban/metro area than where Irma's eye made landfall.

The forecasts I've seen actually keep it out to sea until it's up as far north as the Carolinas during the weekend or early next week.  At that point, they say there's just way too many variables to know right now. One interesting discussion has it meeting up with Jose.  The mixing of the two hurricanes will then be throttle Jose back towards the US and sends Maria out to sea.

The level of performance expected of these highly trained people is, of course, not "perfection" but "the state of the art" which is a very high standard.  Drone work, such as making sure the proper road signs are in the proper places, however, can easily be "perfect" so the analogy fails totally.

^^^^^^ this

Then why do we have several hundreds of pages of signage issues?

From *our* perspective, because we look at so many details, we note every little imperfection.  The proper sign is usually in the proper place - a missing One Way or Do Not Enter would have significant repercussions.  Most of our issues are looking at why 2 different fonts are being used on the same sign and other minor issues that the vast majority of people don't care about (including the guys that had anything to do with such signage).

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #242 on: September 19, 2017, 01:55:10 PM »

Harvey hit a red part of Texas (yes, Houston proper is blue, but red areas were hit more than blue, even accounting for population).

Irma (at least the eye) hit more red areas than blue areas in Florida.

Jose avoided the United States, but it would have hit blue areas (Massachusetts/Rhode Island) if it did hit.

Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.

Result? Mother Nature is making sure that Texas, Florida, and North Carolina will be blue in 2020.
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SP Cook

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #243 on: September 19, 2017, 02:18:03 PM »



Then why do we have several hundreds of pages of signage issues?


Explained.  Because it is a simple task about which something close to "perfect" can be demanded.  Totally different from making the unreasonable demand that a (perhaps the most) complex system, with millions of variables be "perfectly" predicted. 
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berberry

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #244 on: September 19, 2017, 02:18:18 PM »

Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.


Laying aside the politics, that scenario doesn't appear to be likely. The latest update shows Maria curving back into the Atlantic. Noreaster Jose will keep Maria away, it would seem.

A number of local TV meteorologists are posting daily in-depth updates on tropical weather to youtube. Among the better ones, in my opinion, is Tim Pandajis. He explains a lot, in clear language, and the forecast goes well beyond what you get from the TV newscast, unless you happen to live in an area where a tropical cyclone is likely to strike soon. Here's the forecast he posted just a few minutes ago:

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #245 on: September 20, 2017, 02:03:40 PM »

Harvey hit a red part of Texas (yes, Houston proper is blue, but red areas were hit more than blue, even accounting for population).

Irma (at least the eye) hit more red areas than blue areas in Florida.

Jose avoided the United States, but it would have hit blue areas (Massachusetts/Rhode Island) if it did hit.

Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.

Result? Mother Nature is making sure that Texas, Florida, and North Carolina will be blue in 2020.
Maria will hit North Carolina, likely hitting more red areas than blue areas.


Laying aside the politics, that scenario doesn't appear to be likely. The latest update shows Maria curving back into the Atlantic. '

Agreed. This is a weather threat. After all "Hate has no home here". Hurricanes kill many good people, not something to make light of, really. 100's have died across the US and Tens of milliions have been affected in places like USVI, PR, FL, GA, TX, LA and many other places not to mention the our foreign neighbors in the carribbean and earthquake victims in Mexico city reeling today from the devastation. Disaster should bring us together not divide us.

We should be praying and be in solidarity and support relief efforts for PR and USVI today as they are our latest American victims of Maria and pray and hope that Maria doesnt make a bullseye of the Eastern Seaboard.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #246 on: September 20, 2017, 03:28:32 PM »

Thanks, Indyroads. I also prefer to leave this thread to discussions of tropical weather only.

So if you watched that video I posted yesterday from Tim Pandajis, you may remember he mentioned something called the Fujiwhara Effect, by which two tropical systems can merge into one. It is an exceedingly rare event, but over the past 24 hours it has become more likely to happen between Maria and Jose. If you're interested to know more, I'll link today's video from Pandajis, where he again explains the effect and shows how it might happen soon.

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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #247 on: September 26, 2017, 12:02:06 PM »

Wow, this year to date there has been two category 5 Atlantic hurricanes (Irma and Maria) and only one category 5 typhoon (Noru). I like the Western Pacific as it produces several category 5s per year, sometimes going wild. Not this year, though.
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #248 on: October 04, 2017, 11:51:14 AM »

Soon to be Tropical Storm Nate has formed just offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras. This storm could affect the US Gulf Coast, with interests between Tampa Bay and New Orleans needing to watch. Landfall looks to be some point Sunday
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Re: Tropical cyclone tracking thread
« Reply #249 on: October 06, 2017, 03:15:46 PM »

Nate is aiming for the Mississippi Delta. Should be a weak hurricane by the time it gets there.
At least this one ain't gonna pull a Harvey and park itself anywhere. 
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