Tropical cyclone tracking thread

[Road Hog]

The models are starting to come together for a Mexico landfall next Saturday night or Sunday morning with Brownsville as the northern limit, so the Coastal Bend can breathe easier. Still needs watching, though.

[Scott5114]

The models are starting to come together for a Mexico landfall next Saturday night or Sunday morning with Brownsville as the northern limit, so the Coastal Bend can breathe easier. Still needs watching, though.

I'm rooting for a path that causes its remnants to turn into a Southwest monsoon. Fill the lakes up!

[Alex]

Chris has brewed! Small TS

Woke up this morning and saw TS Chris and thought, 97L is already named? Nope, instead the disorganized disturbance from yesterday in the BOC that was already onshore...

So yet another placeholder name. If the trend of recent years continues, this will be the first of several named storms with a very short window.

I question whether some of these should be named, especially ones that are less than 12 hours in duration. Ideally the name is supposed to draw attention toward potential impacts of a storm so the general public can be aware and make preparations as needed. When a storm is named and dissipates in short fashion, the name becomes nothing more than a statistic added to the number of named storms total at the end of the season.

[WillWeaverRVA]

Chris has brewed! Small TS

Woke up this morning and saw TS Chris and thought, 97L is already named? Nope, instead the disorganized disturbance from yesterday in the BOC that was already onshore...

So yet another placeholder name. If the trend of recent years continues, this will be the first of several named storms with a very short window.

I question whether some of these should be named, especially ones that are less than 12 hours in duration. Ideally the name is supposed to draw attention toward potential impacts of a storm so the general public can be aware and make preparations as needed. When a storm is named and dissipates in short fashion, the name becomes nothing more than a statistic added to the number of named storms total at the end of the season.

I watched all the recon missions into what became Chris and it should have been named sooner. It had a well-defined circulation, organized convection, and gale-force winds. It was a tropical storm, period, so it deserved to be named. Names do draw attention toward potential impacts, but their main purpose is ease of communication. Unless a system is clearly not a tropical or subtropical cyclone (Colin of 2022 or Cindy of 2017, for instance), there's no such thing as a waste of a name.

[Molandfreak]

Maybe the minimum wind speed for tropical storm categorization could be raised? If it remains a tropical depression, no name is given.

[bing101]

https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-beryl-caribbean-234b2ecc47f8f0a8d6f3778bea503861


Here is more on Hurricane Beryl

[epzik8]

Beryl earliest Atlantic cat 5 on record.

[snowc]

Beryl has formed! Gonna hit Mexico!

Update: Looks like its our FIRST MAJOR hurricane! 

Update 2: @jgb191 @ZLoth @CoreySamson you ready for this monster hurricane to strike your area?

[Rothman]

Beryl earliest Atlantic cat 5 on record.

"Oh we'll all go together when we go..."

[ZLoth]

Update 2: @jgb191 @ZLoth @CoreySamson you ready for this monster hurricane to strike your area?

The latest forecast has thunderstorm weather starting on Friday, July 5th during the early morning hours in the North Dallas area. DFW is located in the northeastern part of Texas and is a few hundred miles away from Corpus Christi which is at the border of this forecast.

[Road Hog]

I don't like the northward curve the models are starting to give it. If the remnants pass close enough to the west of DFW and we get the dirty side of it, we're going to get flooding rain. It's been dry for a month here, but the reservoirs are still pretty full from a wet May and early June.

[Alex]

I watched all the recon missions into what became Chris and it should have been named sooner. It had a well-defined circulation, organized convection, and gale-force winds. It was a tropical storm, period, so it deserved to be named. Names do draw attention toward potential impacts, but their main purpose is ease of communication. Unless a system is clearly not a tropical or subtropical cyclone (Colin of 2022 or Cindy of 2017, for instance), there's no such thing as a waste of a name.

Yes sir!

[PColumbus73]

I don't like the northward curve the models are starting to give it. If the remnants pass close enough to the west of DFW and we get the dirty side of it, we're going to get flooding rain. It's been dry for a month here, but the reservoirs are still pretty full from a wet May and early June.

Reading the discussions on the NHC website ( https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/115047.shtml?cone#contents ), it sounds like there's a lot of uncertainty about where it might go, and that would depend on the strength of the storm and the atmospheric conditions.

[WillWeaverRVA]

Maybe the minimum wind speed for tropical storm categorization could be raised? If it remains a tropical depression, no name is given.

That would still mean Chris qualifies as a tropical storm as it had tropical storm force winds. Tropical depressions already don't get names in any basin except for the Western Pacific, and even then only for systems near the Philippines that PAGASA assigns local names to (because the international names can be wacky).

[ZLoth]

https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/1809260449902264822
https://twitter.com/NWS/status/1809246761904456106
https://twitter.com/weathertrackus/status/1809222161372168198

[CoreySamson]

Beryl is starting to look like it could be a massive problem locally. The track models keep shifting east to the point where the Houston metro is now basically in the target zone. I've boarded up the south side of my family's house and probably will do the other side tomorrow.

This will be pretty fun...

[epzik8]

^Holy moly. Stay safe Texans.

[Road Hog]

I hate that DFW will miss the most beneficial rainfall, but the silver lining is we'll get a draw of cooler air from the backside of this.

[ZLoth]

https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1809759501991514504
https://twitter.com/weathertrackus/status/1809752705897812278
https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1809717604011135079

[ZLoth]

I hate that DFW will miss the most beneficial rainfall, but the silver lining is we'll get a draw of cooler air from the backside of this.

I didn't think I would say this, but 88℉ last Friday at Firewheel felt a little but chilly, but after all of the heat advisories, yeah, perspective.

[CtrlAltDel]

As things now stand, the center line of the storm is set to pass right through College Station, right at about the moment it will be downgraded from a tropical storm to a tropical depression.

Expected rainfall, though, has recently started going down a bit after going up and up and up over the past few days. It's now at about 5.44 inches. Past that, I don't really know what might happen, although I'm concerned about the wind.

[ozarkman417]

It's looking like the Ozarks are going to get some much needed rain from this system. The area will be on the north end of it so not enough to cause any significant flooding.

[Rothman]

It's looking like the Ozarks are going to get some much needed rain from this system. The area will be on the north end of it so not enough to cause any significant flooding.

Dry ground doesn't absorb water well and will contribute to flooding.

[hotdogPi]

I don't know why, but the name of this storm reminds me of the video games where you craft gems into stuff that can attack. I understand that Beryl is supposed to be a person's name in this case, but it really feels like the gemstone to me.

[vdeane]

I don't know why, but the name of this storm reminds me of the video games where you craft gems into stuff that can attack. I understand that Beryl is supposed to be a person's name in this case, but it really feels like the gemstone to me.

Meanwhile, my brain keeps thinking "anime villain".